Will Moldova Join NATO?

It is highly unlikely that Moldova will join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the short term despite increased Moldovan political and economic cooperation with the West. Neutrality is enshrined in the Moldovan constitution and there is little public support for altering that with NATO membership. The pro-EU government has focused on implementing armed neutrality rather than seeking NATO membership. Despite these factors, Moldova has greatly increased its cooperation with NATO.

Neutrality is clearly defined in the Moldovan constitution, making membership in any alliance a constitutional question. Article 11 of the 1994 document mandates Moldova’s “permanent neutrality” and does not permit “the stationing of any foreign military troops on its territory.” Both the general public and the country's major political parties oppose removing the neutrality provision and joining a larger alliance.

According to recent opinion polls, only about a quarter of Moldovans support NATO membership. 

• A December 2022 poll by iData found that just 25% of Moldovans supported joining NATO. 

• Another iData poll conducted in March 2022 (just after Russia's invasion of Ukraine) found that 21.7% of Moldovans wanted to join NATO.

• Just 22% backed NATO in a December 2018 survey by the Center for Insights in Survey Research, a project of the International Republican Institute.

It is crucial to note that the widespread opposition to NATO membership is not a result of anti-Western sentiments. Though much of the population is certainly pro-Moscow, opinion polls consistently demonstrate that a majority of Moldovans support EU membership. Thus, it is likely that most Moldovans believe that neutrality, rather than participation in a major alliance, will better ensure their safety. 

The liberal Moldovan government has repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to retaining constitutionally-mandated neutrality. Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita has expressed her government's position that Moldova will remain neutral. Membership in the European Union (EU), however, does not violate the neutrality clause, according to Gavrilita. Nicu Popescu, the foreign minister, repeated these sentiments at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in November 2022. While pro-West president, Maia Sandu, has recently floated the idea of amending the constitution to remove neutrality, it is very unlikely that such an amendment would be passed. 

Instead of pursuing NATO membership, the Moldovan government has adopted a policy of increased military spending and greater cooperation with NATO. In a November interview with Radio Free Europe, FM Popescu laid out the government’s vision of armed neutrality, explaining that neutrality does not mean demilitarization. Further, Popescu argued that Russian aggression has forced the government to strengthen its military. Conversely, the pro-Russia opposition, led by former President Igor Dodon, has staunchly opposed greater cooperation with NATO and has recently downplayed the need for increased military spending. Military assistance from NATO will also contribute to improvements to Moldova’s defensive capabilities.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO and Moldova have greatly increased their cooperation and Western nations have provided significant military assistance to Moldova. This military aid and modernization will greatly enhance Moldova’s ability to defend itself, as about 90% of the country’s Soviet-era military equipment is outdated.

In May 2022, the EU pledged to assist in improving Moldova’s military logistics and cyber defenses. Between July 2022 and January 2023, Moldovan troops participated in the NATO-led peacekeeping mission to Kosovo. On January 12, Moldova received 3 Piranha-3H armored fighting vehicles from Germany, with 16 more to be delivered this year. Germany offered to train Moldovan soldiers as well.

Ultimately, Moldova is receiving more and more Western material support and is increasing its cooperation with NATO, but full membership in the alliance continues to be highly unlikely.